Study on future of energy systems presented at global climate change conference
11.12.2015 What does the global energy supply look like in future? The Delphi Energy Future study ventures a look ahead to 2040.
Which technological and social developments will fundamentally change energy systems? Will Germany be able to benefit economically and politically from its role as an energy transition pioneer in the long term? The Delphi Energy Future study examines these and other questions. Interviews were conducted with over 350 energy experts from more than 40 countries whose backgrounds spanned all areas of business, academia and politics. The study is a joint project of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. – BDEW), the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
The majority of the experts interviewed (over 60 per cent) believe, for example, that by 2040 the international community will have agreed and begun implementing binding targets for the reduction of CO2 emissions. According to the study, the drivers of effective climate change mitigation include the increasing cost-effectiveness of renewable energies and technical innovations. Eighty per cent think that renewable energies in conjunction with energy storage technologies will be the most cost-effective alternative for generating electricity in the future. The experts interviewed largely agree on a further point: the countries that focus strongly on renewable energies will have improved their economic situation enormously.
‘The issue of sustainable energy supply will continue to grow in importance as far as our work is concerned because the majority of worldwide growth in energy demand will take place in developing countries and emerging economies,’ said Tanja Gönner, Chair of the GIZ Management Board. Today, GIZ is already working on behalf of various clients to support the expansion of renewable energies in more than 30 countries. The volume of wind and solar energy generated since 2005 in Brazil, India and South Africa alone would be able to power eight million German households annually.
At the climate change conference in Paris, Tanja Gönner, together with Hildegard Müller, Chairperson of the BDEW General Executive Management Board, provided insights into the results of the study. The final analysis will be published at the beginning of 2016.