Transforming Pakistan's energy future through data-driven planning
The decisions behind Pakistan's energy system are made years, sometimes decades, in advance. A new modelling initiative is helping planners get those decisions right, before they become costly mistakes.
Imagine trying to solve a jigsaw puzzle, but each piece is being assembled in a different room, by a different team, without a shared picture of what the final result should look like. That is precisely the risk when a country plans its energy future in fragments.
Pakistan faces one of the most complex energy challenges in the developing world. A rapidly growing population, rising energy demand, ageing infrastructure, volatile fuel import costs, and mounting pressure to reduce carbon emissions are all pulling in different directions at once. Decisions made today about power plants, fuel sources, and transmission networks will shape what energy looks like for the next 30 to 40 years. Getting those decisions wrong is not merely expensive; it can mean power shortages, economic setbacks, and a heavier environmental burden for future generations.
Our Approach: Building an Integrated Energy Model for Pakistan
On behalf of Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the GIZ Pakistan, together with E4SMA through a GET.transform Leveraged Partnership, is working alongside the Government of Pakistan to develop a comprehensive, integrated energy model based on an internationally proven analytical tool called the TIMES model.
What is the TIMES Model?
TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) is a sophisticated energy modelling framework used by governments and research institutions around the world. It takes real data as inputs, including projected energy demand, fuel prices, available technologies, and climate and policy targets, and processes them to identify the most cost-effective pathways toward a long-term, sustainable energy system. Put simply, it helps planners answer some of the hardest questions in energy policy: Which investments will keep electricity affordable? How can Pakistan transition away from costly fuel imports without risking supply shortages? Which combination of technologies, including solar, wind, and gas, delivers the best value over the long term?
Central to this initiative is Integrated Energy Planning. Rather than treating each sector as a separate puzzle, this approach connects them into one coordinated framework. Demand, supply, technology choices, and policy targets are analysed together, across a long-time horizon, to identify the most cost-effective pathway for the energy system as a whole.
This matters because energy decisions are rarely isolated. A policy to expand electric vehicles affects electricity demand. A shift away from imported fuels changes how power plants are financed. A new industrial park alters the load on the grid. Planning tools that capture these connections help decision-makers see trade-offs before they become expensive mistakes.
The outcome of this collaboration is the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (PAK-IEM 2.0). Built on the TIMES framework, it covers all major demand and supply sectors of Pakistan's energy system and enables planners to compare development pathways, weighing trade-offs across costs, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions. Two scenarios have already been modelled: a least-cost baseline reflecting current policies, and a net-zero pathway targeting zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050. For more detailed analysis and insights, please go the PAK-IEM 2.0 booklet.
This initiative reflects Germany's wider commitment to supporting sustainable development through knowledge transfer and capacity building, empowering partner countries to lead their own transitions.
The Foundations: Developing Data, Skills, and Coordination
Empowering a country to lead its own energy transition, however, begins with laying the right foundations. It requires high-quality data across multiple sectors, technical expertise that is still being built in many developing economies, and strong coordination between government ministries and agencies that have traditionally operated in silos. The project directly addresses these barriers by building local capacity and enabling data-driven decision-making that draws together the energy sector including fuels and industry under one analytical roof. This includes training Pakistani planners and analysts to operate, maintain, and expand the model themselves.
The Impact: Who Benefits and How
The primary beneficiaries are Pakistan's energy planners and policymakers, who now have access to a world-class analytical tool tailored to the country's specific context. The downstream benefits, however, reach far wider. Better-informed investment decisions mean a more reliable and affordable electricity supply for households and businesses. A clearer roadmap for energy transition means Pakistan can pursue cleaner energy sources more confidently, reducing dependence on expensive fuel imports and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Stronger policy coordination across ministries means fewer costly misalignments between sectors.
Smarter planning today protects every Pakistani from the consequences of poor energy choices tomorrow. After all, every flick of a light switch depends on decisions made long before electricity reaches your home.
About the project: Digitization and decarbonisation of power distribution networks
On behalf of the German development cooperation, the project 'Digitization and decarbonisation of power distribution networks' supports Pakistan's energy transition by advancing integrated energy planning, enhancing technical capacity across the power sector, and deploying digital solutions to improve grid efficiency and reduce energy losses.